Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-135, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 54.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Bailey Ober (4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Walker Buehler (4.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.5; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -136 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -135 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.0% vs de-vigged market 56.1%: 3.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.071 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (62% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -136 | +122 / -136 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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