Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 55.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.7 pts · 0u
José Soriano (3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Carlos Rodón (3.22 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.4; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +118 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.8% vs de-vigged market 55.2%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Carlos Rodón under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.325 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.027. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-106, FanDuel) · model 54.9% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +118 / -130 | +116 / -130 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-106, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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