St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line · confidence 40.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.4 pts · 0u
Kyle Leahy (3.24 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.5; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline +190 / -220 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -210 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to PHI -1.5 (covers 40.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 54.1%, de-vigged market says 66.6%: a 12.5-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.327 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.030. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-105, Caesars) · model 53.6% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Philadelphia Phillies ML (-210, FanDuel) · model 40.5% · edge -7.4 pts · divergence -12.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +190 / -220 | +189 / -216 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-105, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Philadelphia Phillies ML (-210, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.48u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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