New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.8 pts · 0u
Nolan McLean (3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs Sean Newcomb (2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.6; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.2% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 4.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.348 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.035, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.008. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.695) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 54.7% · edge +4.7 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) · model 52.8% · edge +1.8 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -108 | -106 / -108 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Chicago White Sox ML (-104, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.96u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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