Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (-152, BetRivers) · confidence 54.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.9 pts · 0u
Jackson Kent (9.39 ERA, 2.48 WHIP) vs Janson Junk (4.37 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.6; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +140 / -156 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.5% vs de-vigged market 59.4%: 9.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Kent under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.288 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +140 / -156 | +139 / -157 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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