Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-128, BetUS) · confidence 55.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.2 pts · 0u
Andrew Abbott (4.07 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Mitch Bratt (4.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5; sim total 9.2 against a 9 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +117 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.7% vs de-vigged market 55.1%: 1.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mitch Bratt under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.275 trails league 0.314 by 0.038 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 58.7% · edge +7.0 pts · divergence +8.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +117 / -130 | +118 / -132 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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