Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-122, FanDuel) · confidence 55.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Tyler Mahle (4.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Shane Drohan (3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.7; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +111 / -124 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.1% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.262 trails league 0.314 by 0.051 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +111 / -124 | -102 / -113 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-119 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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