Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 40.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -10.9 pts · 0u
Lake Bachar (3.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs Blake Snell (3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.9; sim total 9.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +240 / -280 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (5 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -265 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 40.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 51.9%, de-vigged market says 71.5%: a 19.6-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Blake Snell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.022, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-265, MyBookie.ag) · model 40.5% · edge -10.9 pts · divergence -19.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +240 / -280 | +245 / -279 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-265, MyBookie.ag) — WIN (+0.38u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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