Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-154, FanDuel) · confidence 55.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.8 pts · 0u
Yusei Kikuchi (5.81 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) vs Cal Quantrill (3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +140 / -157 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -154 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 59.5%: 7.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Yusei Kikuchi under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.284 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.030, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +4.3 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +140 / -157 | +142 / -157 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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