Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-112, FanDuel) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.6 pts · 0u
Shota Imanaga (3.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Bryce Miller (3.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–3.8; sim total 8.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline -116 / +102 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.9% vs de-vigged market 52.0%: 2.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.347 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.034, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -116 / +102 | -116 / +102 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-107 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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