Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-160, Caesars) · confidence 55.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.5 pts · 0u
Foster Griffin (3.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (4.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).
Projected 5.6–5.7; sim total 11.2 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -165 / +148 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -160 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 60.7%: 11.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.305 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 93°F at first pitch: run environment x1.094. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 11 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 52.6% · edge +3.8 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -165 / +148 | -158 / +141 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 11 (+105, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date