Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Francisco Giants ML (-104, DraftKings) · confidence 53.1% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.1 pts · 0u
Brady Singer (4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs Adrian Houser (4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–4.3; sim total 8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -107 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.9% vs de-vigged market 50.2%: 5.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.278 trails league 0.315 by 0.037 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 67°F at first pitch: run environment x0.988. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-105, Fanatics) · model 60.7% · edge +9.4 pts · divergence +10.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -107 | -105 / -111 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-105, Fanatics) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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