The slate for Tuesday, August 25, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 8 on watch
15 games on the slate, 12 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 3 scratched by rule. 8 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, August 24, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Ian Seymour (4.17) vs Jackson Jobe (4.50) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Houston Astros @ New York Yankees | Ethan Pecko (4.91) vs Will Warren (4.43) | 4–4.7 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Seth Lugo (4.71) vs Max Scherzer (7.40) | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets | Kyle Harrison (2.84) vs Zac Thornton (3.04) | 4.4–3.8 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | Tyler Glasnow (2.72) vs Bryce Elder (3.92) | 4.6–4.4 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox | Jacob deGrom (3.77) vs Anthony Kay (3.96) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Gavin Williams (3.72) vs Walbert Ureña (2.80) | 4–4.1 | 8.1 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Clay Holmes (2.49) vs Brandon Pfaadt (3.39) | 5–4.4 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Paul Skenes (3.95) vs Michael King (3.38) | 4.3–4 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Taj Bradley (3.90) vs Gage Jump (4.83) | 5–4.6 | 9.6 / 10 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | Aaron Nola (5.12) vs George Kirby (4.18) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 9:45 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants | Brady Singer (4.72) vs Adrian Houser (4.08) | 3.6–4.3 | 8 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for MIA inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 6:45 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for COL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:45 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for STL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (+102, BetRivers) — Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +1.9 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.815. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays. Seth Lugo (4.71 ERA) against Max Scherzer (7.40) is a 2.7-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox. The sim lands on 9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.5 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Houston Astros @ New York Yankees. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +5.4 ptsmarket-provingHouston Astros @ New York Yankees — Under 8.5 (+102, FanDuel) · model 52.7% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 8.5 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 51.0% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.7% · edge +8.4 ptsedge-bandTexas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox ML (+102, BetRivers) · model 51.4% · edge +1.9 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.9% · edge +3.6 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.5% · edge +5.2 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-105, Fanatics) · model 60.7% · edge +9.4 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.