Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-140, DraftKings) · confidence 53.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Gavin Williams (3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Walbert Ureña (2.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.1; sim total 8.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -142 / +127 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.4% vs de-vigged market 57.1%: 7.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.313 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.002, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.064. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.9% · edge +3.6 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -142 / +127 | -139 / +119 |
| Total | 7.5 | 9 (o-105 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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