Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-138, FanDuel) · confidence 56.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.8 pts · 0u
Ethan Pecko (4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) vs Will Warren (4.43 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.7; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +126 / -140 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.5% vs de-vigged market 56.9%: 1.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ethan Pecko under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.276 trails league 0.315 by 0.040 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.026. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+102, FanDuel) · model 52.7% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +126 / -140 | +127 / -142 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-117 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+102, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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