Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (+102, BetRivers) · confidence 51.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.9 pts · 0u
Jacob deGrom (3.77 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Anthony Kay (3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -110 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +102 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.4% vs de-vigged market 49.4%: 4.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.018. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.815) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.7% · edge +8.4 pts · divergence +10.0 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Chicago White Sox ML (+102, BetRivers) · model 51.4% · edge +1.9 pts · divergence +4.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -110 / -105 | +115 / -134 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Chicago White Sox ML (+102, BetRivers) — WIN (+1.02u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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