Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-104, DraftKings) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.9 pts · 0u
Aaron Nola (5.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs George Kirby (4.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.1; sim total 8.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.5% vs de-vigged market 50.6%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.345 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.030, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -110 | -130 / +110 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date