Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-103, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.7 pts · 0u
Jose Cabrera (5.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs Landen Roupp (4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.1; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -107 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -103 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.3% vs de-vigged market 49.9%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jose Cabrera under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 56.2% · edge +3.8 pts · divergence +5.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -107 | -110 / -104 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-107 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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