The slate for Thursday, August 27, 2026: 7 games, no qualifying plays, 3 on watch
7 games on the slate, 6 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 3 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, August 26, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | Gabriel Hughes (6.54) vs Jake Irvin (5.82) | 5–5.2 | 10.2 / 9.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Houston Astros @ New York Yankees | Hayden Wesneski (4.23) vs Gerrit Cole (3.11) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Noah Cameron (4.02) vs Spencer Arrighetti (4.73) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets | Jacob Misiorowski (1.68) vs Sean Manaea (4.31) | 4.6–3.5 | 8 / 7 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.61) vs Chris Sale (2.20) | 4–4.3 | 8.3 / 6.5 |
| 9:45 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Jose Cabrera (5.60) vs Landen Roupp (4.34) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for STL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-103, BetOnline.ag) (Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets. Jacob Misiorowski (1.68 ERA) against Sean Manaea (4.31) is a 2.6-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves. The sim lands on 8.3 runs against a 6.5 line — 1.8 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingHouston Astros @ New York Yankees — Under 8 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.8% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — Under 7 (+100, BetRivers) · model 52.1% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 56.2% · edge +3.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.