Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 44.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.2 pts · 0u
Jacob Misiorowski (1.68 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) vs Sean Manaea (4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–3.5; sim total 8 against a 7 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline -195 / +170 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 44.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.6% vs de-vigged market 64.1%: 4.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 44.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.339 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (+100, BetRivers) · model 52.1% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +2.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -195 / +170 | -198 / +173 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-109 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (+100, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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