Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-105, DraftKings) · confidence 50.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.8 pts · 0u
Noah Cameron (4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs Spencer Arrighetti (4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.3; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.5% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 0.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -105 | -108 / -105 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-104 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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