Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-150, BetUS) · confidence 57.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.0 pts · 0u
Hayden Wesneski (4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Gerrit Cole (3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.7; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -154 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -150 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.2% vs de-vigged market 58.8%: 3.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hayden Wesneski under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.8% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -154 | +138 / -154 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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