Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-115, DraftKings) · confidence 50.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.6 pts · 0u
Kohl Drake (5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs Blade Tidwell (3.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.2; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -120 / +105 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.0% vs de-vigged market 52.8%: 3.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Kohl Drake, Blade Tidwell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 63°F at first pitch: run environment x0.972. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-104, MyBookie.ag) · model 59.2% · edge +8.2 pts · divergence +9.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -120 / +105 | -114 / +103 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-112 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-104, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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