The slate for Friday, August 28, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 6 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 6 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, August 27, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 2-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:20 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Rhett Lowder (5.13) vs David Peterson (5.17) | 4.3–5.4 | 9.7 / 9 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Tarik Skubal (2.91) vs Drew Anderson (4.09) | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Eury Pérez (3.17) vs Jackson Kent (8.03) | 4.6–4.7 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Michael Wacha (3.49) vs Tanner Bibee (3.97) | 4.2–4.3 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Hunter Brown (3.51) vs Christian Scott (3.73) | 4.1–4.1 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Casey Mize (3.44) vs Shane McClanahan (3.10) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Tomoyuki Sugano (4.96) vs Grant Holmes (3.64) | 4.4–5.1 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Patrick Sandoval (4.54) vs Cam Schlittler (2.16) | 3.8–4.4 | 8.2 / 7 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Cody Bradford (3.05) vs Logan Henderson (2.60) | 3.7–4.8 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Luis Castillo (5.19) vs Dean Kremer (5.22) | 5–4.7 | 9.7 / 9 |
| 8:15 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Jared Jones (4.76) vs Quinn Mathews (6.43) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Andrew Painter (6.04) vs Reid Detmers (3.62) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 8 |
| 10:15 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Kohl Drake (5.40) vs Blade Tidwell (3.58) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SEA inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATH inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Houston Astros ML (-105, Caesars) (Houston Astros @ New York Mets) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals. Eury Pérez (3.17 ERA) against Jackson Kent (8.03) is a 4.9-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals. The sim lands on 8.8 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.3 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +5.6 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Washington Nationals — Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 56.3% · edge +7.0 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 52.0% · edge +3.7 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 7.5 (+105, BetRivers) · model 58.1% · edge +9.4 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 8 (-108, BetRivers) · model 56.0% · edge +4.1 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-104, MyBookie.ag) · model 59.2% · edge +8.2 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.