Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-176, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 60.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.1 pts · 0u
Cody Bradford (3.05 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Logan Henderson (2.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–4.8; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +156 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -176 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.1% vs de-vigged market 62.2%: 3.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 60.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cody Bradford under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +156 / -180 | +140 / -163 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-111 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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