Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 43.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.1 pts · 0u
Tomoyuki Sugano (4.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Grant Holmes (3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5.1; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +195 / -225 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -218 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 43.3% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.8% vs de-vigged market 67.1%: 11.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.315 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.063. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +195 / -225 | +185 / -220 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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