San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.0 pts · 0u
Casey Mize (3.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Shane McClanahan (3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.2; sim total 8.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +118 / -131 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.2% vs de-vigged market 55.3%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +118 / -131 | +110 / -130 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-105 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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