Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-112, FanDuel) · confidence 50.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.1 pts · 0u
Jared Jones (4.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Quinn Mathews (6.43 ERA, 1.79 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.4; sim total 8.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -115 / +104 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.2% vs de-vigged market 52.2%: 3.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Quinn Mathews under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.316 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.053. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, BetRivers) · model 58.1% · edge +9.4 pts · divergence +9.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -115 / +104 | -113 / +101 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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