Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (-145, Caesars) · confidence 53.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.4 pts · 0u
Eury Pérez (3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs Jackson Kent (8.03 ERA, 2.11 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.7; sim total 9.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -150 / +133 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -145 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 58.3%: 9.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Kent under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.064 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 56.3% · edge +7.0 pts · divergence +8.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -150 / +133 | -150 / +133 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date