Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-123, BetUS) · confidence 50.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.3 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (6.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs Reid Detmers (3.62 ERA, 1.06 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -127 / +113 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.3% vs de-vigged market 54.4%: 7.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.341 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 89°F at first pitch: run environment x1.075 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (61% air outs), away SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (-108, BetRivers) · model 56.0% · edge +4.1 pts · divergence +6.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -127 / +113 | -235 / +197 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-107 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (-108, BetRivers) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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