Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 39.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.6 pts · 0u
Tarik Skubal (2.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) vs Drew Anderson (4.09 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.1; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -190 / +163 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -181 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 39.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 63.3%: 10.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 39.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.030. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +5.6 pts · divergence +6.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -190 / +163 | -190 / +164 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date