Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-105, Caesars) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Christian Scott (3.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.1; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -105 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.9% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 0.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.306 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.022. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -105 | -106 / -104 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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