Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-148, FanDuel) · confidence 56.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Patrick Sandoval (4.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) vs Cam Schlittler (2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.4; sim total 8.2 against a 7 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -151 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -148 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.0% vs de-vigged market 58.6%: 3.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Patrick Sandoval under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.351 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.035, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -151 | +133 / -148 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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