Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-123, DraftKings) · confidence 50.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.3 pts · 0u
Luis Castillo (5.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs Dean Kremer (5.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Projected 5–4.7; sim total 9.7 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +114 / -126 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.2% vs de-vigged market 54.4%: 7.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Dean Kremer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.352 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.035, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.046. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +114 / -126 | +105 / -119 |
| Total | 9 | 9.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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