Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-136, FanDuel) · confidence 57.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Shane Baz (4.04 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Jack Perkins (6.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).
Projected 5.3–4.3; sim total 9.6 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -140 / +126 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.8% vs de-vigged market 56.9%: 0.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.4% · edge +5.7 pts · divergence +6.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -140 / +126 | -155 / +130 |
| Total | 9.5 | 10.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.01u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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