The slate for Saturday, August 29, 2026: 17 games, no qualifying plays, 10 on watch
17 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 3 scratched by rule. 10 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, August 28, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-4-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Jake Bennett (3.49) vs Carlos Rodón (3.15) | 4.2–4.2 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 1:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Blake Snell (2.57) vs Keider Montero (3.30) | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 / 7 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Erick Fedde (4.18) vs Bailey Ober (4.49) | 4.9–4.6 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Lake Bachar (3.70) vs Kyle Leahy (3.13) | 4–4.4 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 2:20 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Andrew Abbott (4.15) vs Kevin Gausman (4.37) | 4.2–5.3 | 9.4 / 9 |
| 3:07 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Kade Anderson (4.76) vs José Soriano (3.43) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Sandy Alcantara (3.38) vs Cade Cavalli (3.21) | 4.2–4.7 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Daniel Lynch IV (2.93) vs Foster Griffin (3.19) | 4–4.2 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Bennett Sousa (6.27) vs Nolan McLean (3.21) | 4–4.2 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Walker Buehler (4.63) vs Nick Martinez (2.93) | 4.2–4.4 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Ryan Feltner (6.08) vs Martín Pérez (3.12) | 4.3–5.3 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Cal Quantrill (2.90) vs Shane Drohan (3.84) | 3.9–4.7 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 10:05 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Shane Baz (4.04) vs Jack Perkins (6.68) | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 / 9.5 |
| 10:07 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Cristopher Sánchez (2.62) vs Ryan Johnson (5.75) | 5–3.9 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:15 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BOS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 10:05 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Washington Nationals ML (-104, DraftKings) — Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 4:05 PM ET. Edge +1.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.645. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels. Cristopher Sánchez (2.62 ERA) against Ryan Johnson (5.75) is a 3.1-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers. The sim lands on 8.5 runs against a 7 line — 1.5 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingChicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins — Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) · model 54.7% · edge +4.7 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 52.6% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 52.6% · edge +3.4 ptsedge-bandSeattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays ML (-106, DraftKings) · model 52.5% · edge +1.0 ptsedge-bandMiami Marlins @ Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals ML (-104, DraftKings) · model 52.1% · edge +1.1 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-110, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +2.0 ptsmarket-provingHouston Astros @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.8% · edge +3.1 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays — Under 8 (-108, LowVig.ag) · model 55.2% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers — Under 8 (+100, FanDuel) · model 54.6% · edge +4.6 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Athletics — Under 9.5 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.4% · edge +5.7 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.