San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.2 pts · 0u
Walker Buehler (4.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Nick Martinez (2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.4; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +116 / -128 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 54.8%: 2.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.302 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-108, LowVig.ag) · model 55.2% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +5.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +116 / -128 | +116 / -130 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-109 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-108, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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