Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-118, FanDuel) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.8 pts · 0u
Lake Bachar (3.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs Kyle Leahy (3.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.4; sim total 8.4 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -122 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -118 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.4% vs de-vigged market 53.3%: 0.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.259 trails league 0.316 by 0.057 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.070. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 52.6% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -122 | +107 / -122 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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