Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 46.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.1 pts · 0u
Andrew Abbott (4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Kevin Gausman (4.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5.3; sim total 9.4 against a 9 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +165 / -190 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 46.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.8% vs de-vigged market 63.5%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.055. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 52.6% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +165 / -190 | +180 / -205 |
| Total | 9 | 9.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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