Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-156, FanDuel) · confidence 58.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.5 pts · 0u
Cal Quantrill (2.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Shane Drohan (3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.7; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +142 / -160 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.1% vs de-vigged market 59.8%: 2.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.322 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, FanDuel) · model 54.6% · edge +4.6 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +142 / -160 | +141 / -165 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-109 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, FanDuel) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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