Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 38.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.3 pts · 0u
Blake Snell (2.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs Keider Montero (3.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.2; sim total 8.5 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -180 / +160 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -175 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 38.1% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 62.6%: 10.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 38.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Blake Snell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.307 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.045. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -180 / +160 | -183 / +160 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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