Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-106, DraftKings) · confidence 52.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.0 pts · 0u
Kade Anderson (4.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs José Soriano (3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.3; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -102 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -106 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.3% vs de-vigged market 50.7%: 3.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Kade Anderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.307 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Toronto Blue Jays ML (-106, DraftKings) · model 52.5% · edge +1.0 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -102 / -108 | -103 / -108 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Toronto Blue Jays ML (-106, DraftKings) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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