Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-142, FanDuel) · confidence 55.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Daniel Lynch IV (2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs Foster Griffin (3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.2; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +132 / -149 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -142 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 58.1%: 5.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Daniel Lynch IV under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.357 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.041, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.058. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, Fanatics) · model 54.4% · edge +2.0 pts · divergence +3.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +132 / -149 | +134 / -150 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-106 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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