Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-128, FanDuel) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.5 pts · 0u
Bennett Sousa (6.27 ERA, 1.82 WHIP) vs Nolan McLean (3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.2; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +119 / -132 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.7% vs de-vigged market 55.5%: 3.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Bennett Sousa under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.293 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.022, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.038. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.8% · edge +3.1 pts · divergence +4.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +119 / -132 | +125 / -140 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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