Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 45.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Ryan Feltner (6.08 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs Martín Pérez (3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–5.3; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +194 / -225 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -218 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 45.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.6% vs de-vigged market 67.1%: 9.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.316 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.000, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.062. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +194 / -225 | +200 / -225 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-108 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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