Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-114, FanDuel) · confidence 50.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Erick Fedde (4.18 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs Bailey Ober (4.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.6; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +106 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -114 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.9% vs de-vigged market 52.9%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.339 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.014. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) · model 54.7% · edge +4.7 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +106 / -120 | +100 / -110 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-114 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date