Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (+106, DraftKings) · confidence 51.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.8 pts · 0u
Jordan Hicks (3.83 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs Zebby Matthews (4.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 5–4.4; sim total 9.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +103 / -115 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +106 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.8% vs de-vigged market 47.9%: 6.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Jordan Hicks under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.332 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.060. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.683) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.2% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +103 / -115 | +104 / -115 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-117 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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