The slate for Sunday, August 30, 2026: 14 games, no qualifying plays, 12 on watch
14 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 12 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-3-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Janson Junk (4.21) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.72) | 4.4–4.9 | 9.3 / 9 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Mason Adams (2.25) vs Tyler Mahle (4.41) | 4.4–4.9 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Ranger Suarez (3.35) vs Will Warren (4.39) | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 1:37 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Logan Gilbert (3.36) vs Max Scherzer (7.02) | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Seth Lugo (4.61) vs Parker Messick (2.50) | 3.8–4.4 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Tyler Glasnow (3.02) vs Framber Valdez (4.35) | 4.5–4.2 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Robbie Ray (3.21) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.95) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.3 / 7 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Jordan Hicks (3.83) vs Zebby Matthews (4.86) | 5–4.4 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Kumar Rocker (4.41) vs Dustin May (4.56) | 3.8–5 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Braxton Ashcraft (3.59) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.44) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Ethan Pecko (7.88) vs Zac Thornton (2.88) | 4–4.4 | 8.4 / 9 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Chris Bassitt (4.74) vs Jeffrey Springs (6.08) | 5.4–4.6 | 10 / 10 |
| 4:07 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Zack Wheeler (3.40) vs Yusei Kikuchi (6.25) | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
| 7:20 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Chase Burns (2.77) vs Shota Imanaga (3.78) | 4.2–4.9 | 9.2 / 9 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (+106, DraftKings) — Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 2:10 PM ET. Edge +2.8 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.683. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Houston Astros @ New York Mets. Zac Thornton (2.88 ERA) against Ethan Pecko (7.88) is a 5.0-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 8.3 runs against a 7 line — 1.3 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingMiami Marlins @ Washington Nationals — Under 9 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 55.1% · edge +6.3 ptsmarket-provingColorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves — Over 8.5 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 54.0% · edge +4.0 ptsR8-holdColorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves ML (-235, FanDuel) · model 41.6% · edge -9.0 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +2.0 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 8 (-110, FanDuel) · model 55.6% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) · model 54.1% · edge +5.3 ptsmarket-provingChicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins — Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.2% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers — Under 8.5 (-105, LowVig.ag) · model 53.8% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 60.4% · edge +7.4 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Athletics — Under 10 (+100, Caesars) · model 55.4% · edge +5.4 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5 (-105, BetUS) · model 61.3% · edge +10.1 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 57.0% · edge +7.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.