Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 41.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -9.0 pts · 0u
Mason Adams (2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) vs Tyler Mahle (4.41 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.9; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +210 / -240 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -235 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 41.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 53.8%, de-vigged market says 68.6%: a 14.9-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Adams under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.065. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 54.0% · edge +4.0 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Atlanta Braves ML (-235, FanDuel) · model 41.6% · edge -9.0 pts · divergence -14.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +210 / -240 | +215 / -242 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Atlanta Braves ML (-235, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.43u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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