Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-166, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 58.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Zack Wheeler (3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Yusei Kikuchi (6.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.1; sim total 8.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -172 / +150 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -166 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.1% vs de-vigged market 61.3%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Yusei Kikuchi under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.073 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-105, BetUS) · model 61.3% · edge +10.1 pts · divergence +11.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -172 / +150 | -172 / +149 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-113 / u-106) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-105, BetUS) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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